The Battle for Vidhana Soudha

One Result. Four Scenarios.

One Result. Four Scenarios.
It’s that time of the year again for psephologists, poll pundits, political commentariat and even astrologers. Which way will Karnataka vote? With President’s Rule in the State, the scent of elections is in the air, and polls are a matter of when, and not if. All political parties have shifted to battle gear and are keeping their electoral gunpowder dry for the ensuing battle. TW looks at the various scenarios that can unfold in the future:

Scenario 1: A Fragmented Electorate: When voters are divided and cannot agree on a single party, the election may well turn out to be like a lottery. If all the three major contenders, the BJP, JD(S) and the Congress  manage to keep their vote base intact, but no more, then anything is possible. To what extent a divided electorate will divide the Legislative Assembly remains to be seen. Will Karnataka follow the Tripura way, where an Independent MLA has gone on to become the CM? It may not be such a close call here, but stranger things have happened in Indian politics. So, keep your fingers crossed, if you are a voter, and if you are a contender for power, keep your date with the astrologer.

Scenario 2: When Caste Rules the Roost: Is Karnataka going to be the Uttar Pradesh of Dakshin Bharat? Where castes and sub-castes decide how you cast your vote? If it does, the election’s going to test the skills and instincts of the most battle-scarred caste warriors like Deve Gowda. Here’s how the caste cookie is likely to roll:

The Lingayats by all accounts are going to back the BJP to the hilt. Reason: BJP strongman BS Yediyurappa, a Lingayat, was deprived of becoming the CM by the Gowda clan and so they will make the Gowdas pay for this crime. Secondly, the Lingayats are traditionally opposed to Congress. Some of the old timers still remember how their beloved leader Veerendra Patil was unceremoniously booted out as CM by the late Rajiv Gandhi. In politics, old wounds may not be for ever, but not when you leave it unattended to, when you refuse to make any amends. Thirdly, Yediyurappa has assiduously wooed the Lingayat mutt chiefs who wield a strong political influence over how their community votes.

The next major community, the Vokkaligas, are divided between the JD(S) and the Congress, between the Gowda clan on the one side, and DK Shivakumar, Ambarish on the other. The Congress position can get fortified with the possible return of former CM and Maharashtra Governor SM Krishna to active politics, but that is, as of now, in the realm of pure speculation.

Queering the pitch further is the fact that the State BJP chief Sadananda Gowda, is a Vokkaliga, but by most accounts he is only expected to be a wild card in the pack.

Apart from the Big 2, the third major caste group, the Kurubas, are firmly ensconced behind Siddaramaiah, who is now in the Congress. Which leaves the Dalits and the minorities. With Mallikarjuna Kharge, a veteran Scheduled Caste leader, the Congress will expect the Dalits to vote for them in a big way, while Deve Gowda is pampering the minorities in the best way possible: That is, ditch the BJP, so that the minorities will be happy and gift you their vote. The question is: Is it as simple as it sounds? The answer, that Gowda is relying on, is the theory of tactical voting. The Muslims will generally give their vote to the party that has the best chance of defeating the BJP. It might be true in the cow belt, that not in Karnataka, because they are not numerically strong enough to wield such influence.

Scenario 3: Vote for Stability: Tested and tried, old warhorse, conservative, experienced. Anytime, any day, it’s the Congress’ USP. Whether in or out of power. And if this has to pay dividends, it will when the fatigue factor comes into play. A tired electorate, dejected with the hyper politics of the JD(S), uncertain and unconvinced of the BJP, might sleep walk its way to the booth and ‘hand’ their vote to the grand old dame of Indian politics. Unlikely? With the UPA on a strong wicket at the Centre right now, you can’t rule it out altogether.