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Wanted: Double digit GDP growth

The India growth story continues to sizzle, with the GDP for 2K6-07 clocking a growth rate of over 9.4% - the second highest since Independence. Some experts might describe this as a case of overheating of the economy, but we have to view the picture from the bleaker side also. Too many people continue to flounder on or just above the poverty line, and vast swathes of the middle class are struggling to make both ends meet. So the prevailing GDP growth needs to be maintained for some more years if prosperity has to be more evenly spread and reach a larger spectrum of the population.

The government had targeted a growth of 9%, but we have succeeded in breaching the figure, so there is enough reason to cheer for the UPA government, which seems to be caught in its own contradictions, hurtling from one electoral disaster to another. The only period of slow growth recorded for the year was in the last quarter. At the time it was felt that the economy was cooling off, but current indications show that the economy is once again up and running, reflecting a rare sense of confidence and robustness. The business indices for the last fiscal reflect sound health, with all sectors having outstripped the previous year's performance, with the sole exception of the farm sector. Industrial production has grown at well over twelve per cent. The government though needs to urgently address the issue of negative growth in agriculture. Experts have repeatedly pointed out that one way for the Indian economy to breach the magical mark of 10%-plus growth ala China, is to revive the agriculture sector. We need to do all the right things necessary to pamper and encourage the farm sector. We need to look beyond giving the farmers sops and subsidies. The think tank and Planning Commission gurus should evolve a strategy to replicate the success story of the telecom industry in the agri-sector. A decade ago, the Indian telecom industry was a joke, where people had to wait for years to get a phone connection. Today, if a commercial were to show a BSNL phone ringing in the highest peaks of the world, it would be perfectly legit and utterly believable.

The problem of rising inflation has been countered by increasing interest rates. This has shown negative results in real estate which has been slowing down since. It is also true that the increased growth rate is due to the value addition in the manufacturing sector which saw an increase in cost of inputs due to inflationary trends. The increase of input costs should be brought under control or else competitiveness would get eroded. The measures taken by the government to tame inflation has shown results and the RBI has helped the cause by allowing a favorable monetary policy in the last trench.

The monsoon for the current year is predicted to be good and if the government were to kick start an appropriate strategy to breathe life into the farm sector, we could realistically be eyeing a double digit growth in the immediate future. The moot point is, does our government have the vision for enabling a double digit GDP growth rate?
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